Insights

Recalculating

As the gold price has oscillated around the high-profile $1,300 level throughout 2019, it has become increasingly apparent that strong demand from Eastern (physical) markets below $1,300 is roughly offsetting a lack of urgency in Western (paper) markets above that price point.

Insights tagged: Macro

What You're Not Hearing about Cain, Moore and the Gold Standard

If Alan Greenspan and Stanley Fischer can talk about gold as a policy tool, why can't Trump's nominees?....There is nothing wrong with talking about gold. We should follow it more closely not less.

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Jay Powell's Response to the Inverted Yield Curve?

President Trump and White House advisor Larry Kudlow are baiting Chairman Powell to cut interest rates — but Powell himself said last year that he would listen to an inverted yield curve. Don Luskin breaks down the recent changes to the 10-year yield curve and suggests a way for Powell to independently react.

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Busy Week

This past week witnessed an unusually rich sequence of gold supportive events.  Indeed, four successive developments came so fast and furious that we expect strong performance in the gold complex in coming weeks as investors have a bit more time to process the significance of recent news flow. 

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TrendMacro's 2020 Election Model

TrendMacro's proprietary quantitative presidential election model predicts that Trump will be re-elected by a margin of 294 electoral college votes, assuming economic conditions are the same in November 2020 as they are today. (TrendMacro is apolitical and non-partisan.)

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Next Stop on the Jay Powell Apology Tour

Trend Macro’s Don Luskin anticipates no Fed rate increase on Wednesday, 1/30/19, and explains that a WSJ report, suspected of being "planted," sets up Fed Chair Powell to sound both dovish and smart about the Fed's balance sheet — a way to redeem himself from the humiliating the December FOMC. 

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On the Margin: Well, We Said "Brace Yourself"

Luskin: "The media is falsely characterizing the Trump/Xi trade negotiation breakthrough as a mere 'truce' or 'ceasefire,' indeed claiming that there isn't even any actual agreement arising from the Buenos Aires summit. This is no 'ceasefire,' as no existing U.S. tariffs are being withdrawn. And there is an agreement — both sides officially say so." 

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On the Margin: In the Beginning was the Word “Framework”

Luskin opines that we may be nearing “deal” on the U.S./China trade war. “We’ve been telling clients to look for the word ‘framework’ to emerge in Trump administration rhetoric ahead of the month-end meeting between US President Donald J. Trump and China President Xi Jinping."

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One Sell-Off, So Many Causes

Luskin provides a timely analysis of the recent market sell-off. Mid-term elections, the Fed, FANG stocks and a potential trade war with China are all playing a part in October’s market correction.  Several of these – especially China – are real and persistent issues. He writes, “Altogether, we’re regarding this as only a correction, not the onset of a new bear market.”

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